Monday, August 30, 2010

CitiFX Pro

As forex trading continues to gain popularity and more brokers enter the market, decisions for consumers only grow harder. You want to know every possibility before settling into a specific brokerage. But the need for information is not over once you’ve made that decision. Perhaps you should consider switching. Or perhaps there are features and possibilities you aren’t fully using. This review will give you a better understanding of one of the larger forex options—CitiFX pro.
About CitiFX Pro
Quite simply, CitiFX Pro is part of Citigroup—the huge conglomerate that began in 1812 and became one of the largest American banks by 1895. Citigroup began offering online forex trading in 2007, by joining forces with Saxo Bank and offering their software as an adaptation of Saxo Trader. CitiFX Pro is still supported by Saxo Bank in conjunction with Citi. CitiFX Pro added mobile trading in 2009. Compared to some of the other forex traders, CitiFX Pro is very much a newcomer. But the size and history of Citigroup more than make up for the newness of CitiFX Pro.

Key Registrations


As a bank, Citi is in its own category. It is not always clear what registrations CitiFX Pro uses through its connection to Citi, but quite feasibly it could use all of Citigroup’s registrations, which are practically universal. This is one reason that CitiFX Pro can offer more currency pairs than its competitors.


Contact Information At A Glance

Customer service is one of the major values most users of CitiFX Pro have enjoyed. CitiFX Pro can offer this kind of value because of its size and history. For many, this could be a legitimately determining factor in the decision. It would be helpful, however, if Citi offered live chat.
  • Toll-Free Phone Number: 1 (877) 265-7781
  • Alternative Phone: 1 (877) 397-7670
  • Email Support: sales@citifxpro.com
Vital Trading Information About CitiFX Pro
CitiFX Pro allows trading in more than 130 currency pairs, including many emerging markets that other brokerages do not allow.
CitiFX Pro uses a proprietary software—CitiFX Pro Desktop, Web or Mobile. This platform has free streaming news and data. You will also find one-click execution and a wide range of other execution tools. The CitiFX Pro platform also includes broad charting capabilities.




CitiFX Pro also offers mobile trading on cell phones or other devices. One great feature—the software is ported to the Blackberry and iPhone. This allows traders to monitor their positions in real-time, 24-hour streaming. It also offers electronic alerts if margin usage approaches key levels.



Many users find the CitiFX Pro software to be unintuitive and challenging to use. In general, this software is not the best choice for beginning forex traders and is designed with the high-end trader in mind.

Minimum Deposit Amounts



CitiFX Pro may have one of the highest opening deposit requirements—$10,000. This is just one other way that CitiFX Pro is clearly intended for advanced traders and institutions. You can make this deposit by wire.



One advantage comes from the fact that Citi is also a bank. All dollar amounts held in CitiFX Pro accounts are FDIC insured up to the normal $250,000. This is a very unusual feature in forex brokerages.




Platform

AVA FX

There are many foreign exchange market brokers to choose from, and they come in many different sizes and configurations. Bigger isn’t necessarily better, though, and Ava FX is a modestly-sized broker that brings a lot of flexibility and different features to the table. Is Ava FX the right forex broker for you, though? To get a better idea about whether or not to trade with Ava FX, check out our comprehensive review below.

About Ava FX
In terms of longevity, Ava FX has not been around for a very long time. It was founded in 2006, but has already managed to secure more than 100,000 customers during its brief history. Ava FX is incorporated in Ireland, and its operations revolve around its unique software, Metatrader 4. Although Ava FX is small when compared to many other foreign exchange market brokers, its reputation is enhanced by the fact that it is backed by a major financial institution. That financial institution has been given an “A+” rating by an S & P-affiliated rating agency.

Ava FX doesn’t boast a large number of branches spread across the globe. Instead, it is made up of two basic entities: the Ava Group and Ava Capital Markets Ltd. Of course, location is not of primary concern when it comes to trading on the foreign exchange market online, and Ava FX makes up for its small size by offering a high level of customer service and support.

Key Registrations

Unlike many of the top forex brokers doing business today, Ava FX does not appear to have a large number of key registrations. Instead, it is listed as “compliant” with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, or MiFiD, and is regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.


Contact Information At A Glance
If you opt to sign up with Ava FX to conduct your forex trading, you will need to keep all of its pertinent contact information handy. That way, if an issue arises you will be able to quickly and easily get the help that you need. Basic contact information for Ava FX is as follows:
Account Set-Up
By applying online, you can set up an account with Ava FX in a relatively short amount of time. The application itself typically only takes three to five minutes to complete. From there, it takes another few days to have your application approved. An email is sent when your account is all set and ready to go; an initial deposit is, of course, required.

Demo Accounts
 For up to 21 days, you can sign up for a free practice account with Ava FX. With your free account, you will be given a balance of $100,000 in fake currency so that you can get a real sense for how Ava FX and the AvaTrader software works. For best results, traders are advised to use their practice accounts for the full trial period in order to see how fluctuations and other events affect their positions.


Dealing Desk
There is no express or implied guarantees or promises made by Ava FX regarding dealing desks and trading against its customers. For that reason, traders are advised to participate at their own risk. However, this advice holds true for all foreign exchange market brokers and in no way suggests that Ava FX is inferior.

Leverage Limits
Leverage limits of up to 200:1, or up to 200 times the current equity value, are par for the course with Ava FX. With a $500 deposit, then, you could open trades of up to $100,000 with this broker.

Trailing Stops
Ava FX does support the use of trailing stops, and they are easy to set up using AvaTrader. On an existing trade, traders simply need to edit the trailing stops option within the “Open Positions” window. Otherwise, you just need to enter a stop order, click on the “Trailing Stop” option and specify the number of pips from high or low that you desire.

Trading Spreads
During normal market conditions, Ava FX offers spreads of three to four pips on major currency combinations. For example, the spread for EUR/USD is typically three pips; the spread for USD/CAD is typically five pips.
Vital Trading Information About Ava FX
Trading on Ava FX centers around its custom trading platform, AvaTrader. Like many other online foreign exchange programs, Ava FX’s AvaTrader features a user-friendly interface and is free for current Ava FX customers to download and use. Live streaming prices allow traders to quickly and easily make the moves they need to make. Multiple worksheets can be opened at once, increasing the ease-of-use and flexibility of the AvaTrader program. One-click trading, easy-to-read charts, simple lists for open positions and orders, user-friendly dealing rates tables – and many other great features – are all available on the AvaTrader platform.

Ava FX also offers mobile trading to those who wish to manage their foreign exchange trades via their cell phone or other mobile device.
There’s more to Ava FX than its software, which is why we take a closer look at several key characteristics of the service below.

Minimum Deposit Amounts
At $100, Ava FX has one of the higher minimum deposit amounts among top foreign exchange market brokers. Still, it is more than enough to get the ball rolling and those funds will be used in short order to engage in foreign exchange trading.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Archive for the 'British Pound' Category

Archive for the 'British Pound' Category
                             Pound Rally Runs out of Steam
The rally in the Pound, which lifted it 10% from trough to peak, appears to be fizzling. The Pound is already down 3% in the last two weeks, and is trending downward. It now stands at a four-week low against the Dollar. Looking back at the Pound’s two-month rise, it’s not hard to understand why it was unsustainable. You can see from the charts below that there was a strong correlation with the Euro and the S&P 500 over the same period of time. This suggests that the Pound rally was less a product of changing fundamentals and more due to a sudden decrease in risk aversion.

By no coincidence the rally in equities, the Euro, and a handful of other proxy vehicles for risk, all came to and end at the same time as the Pound. In a nutshell, the markets are back to focusing on fundamentals. Namely, the risk of a double-dip recession, combined with a lack of resolution in the Eurozone debt crisis is causing investors to think twice about making bets that entail any kind of risk.


In this regard, the Pound is especially vulnerable. On the economic front, the UK economy only grew by 1.1% in the second quarter, with economists predicting only modest growth for the year. According to an economist for the Bank of England, “It would be ‘foolish’ to rule out a renewed downturn.” Evidently, his bosses agree: “The Bank of England last week said growth will be weaker than it forecast in May, citing “continuing fiscal consolidation and the persistence of tight credit conditions.”According to a recent poll, almost half of British households are pessimistic about the country’s economic prospects in the near-term: “The proportion of pessimists is marginally lower than in July, but is higher than in any other month since March last year.”

Ironically, the efforts of the British government to curb spending and cut the deficit are perceived as making matters worse. Since these measures won’t be offset by lowered taxes, they will directly lead to lower economic growth. Given that both the Pound and UK bond prices are rising (implying an increased risk of default), I think this reinforces the point I made last week about the markets not caring at all in this economic climate about increasing national debt.
The icing on the cake is inflation. A British think-tank made headlines by predicting that the UK economy will emerge from recession next year, “But once recovery is under way, he thinks, then the Bank of England’s quantitative easing scheme, which pumped £200 billion into the economy in the wake of the credit crunch, will have terrible consequences.” Specifically, the think-tank is forecasting inflation of 10% and a benchmark interest rate of 10%.
For now, this remains a distant prospect, and analysts are focusing on the fact that the economy will probably re-enter recession before it can officially exit from it. As for the Pound, forecasts are not optimistic: “Bears in a Bloomberg survey of strategists outnumber bulls 29 to 12, while TD Securities in Toronto, the most-accurate forecaster in the six quarters ended June 30, has the lowest estimate, predicting sterling will depreciate 15 percent versus the dollar by year-end.” According to the most recent Commitments of Traders report, institutional investors were still net long the Pound as of August 10. Futures prices, meanwhile, have moved in lockstep with spot prices, which suggests that futures traders are still waiting for more data before they weigh in on the Pound.

Personally, I’m having a tough time coming up with a prediction. I tend to agree with the characterization of “the foreign exchange markets post-crisis as a beauty parade with ugly contestants.” In other words, all of the major currencies are currently plagued by poor fundamentals. It’s hard to say that the Pound is in better or worse shape than the Dollar or the Euro. Still, given the way that markets have been trading, a return to (global) recession would not be kind to the Pound.

CAD: Steady as She Goes

The Canadian Dollar was supposed to be one of the “hot” currencies of 2010. Given that it’s now exactly where it started the year, I think it’s safe to say that this isn’t the case. On the one hand, it would seem that the markets are still confused about how much the CAD should be worth, as Adam recently pointed out. An alternative interpretation is that investors believe the Loonie should trade near parity with the US Dollar; it has hovered just above that mark since breaching it in April.
The Canadian Dollar has benefited from strong fundamentals, especially compared to the US. Inflation is low and the economy is stable. “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently said that Canada is likely to be the first of the seven major industrialized democracies to return to a budgetary surplus status by 2015.” 2010 GDP growth is projected at 3.3%, compared to around 2.5% in the US.


For this reason, “Pacific Investment Management Co. founder Bill Gross said he favors Canada…he’s ‘in awe’ of countries such as Canada that have a low debt-to-gross-domestic- product ratio and solvent financial institutions. ‘North of the border’ has become a ‘preferable destination’ to what he sees in the U.S.” As a result, analysts have started to look beyond commodities, historically seen as the cornerstone of Canada’s economy. When the price of oil collapsed in May, the Loonie hardly budged. Given that Canada’s balance of trade is negative in spite of its commodity exports, maybe in focus is justified.

The Loonie is also benefiting from a positive interest rate differential with the US. Thanks to two consecutive rate hikes by the Bank of Canada (BOC) – which was the first G7 Central bank to tighten – Canada’s benchmark rate now exceeds the Federal Funds Rate by .5%. If the BOC fulfills expectations and hikes rates again at its meeting on September 8, this differential will widen further. In fact, it could continue expanding well into 2011, since the BOC is well ahead of the Fed in its monetary policy cycle. Here, again, the contrast with the US is self-evident: “The Canadian central bank has been raising interest rates, and has signaled that it will continue to raise interest rates. And with the Fed’s decision today reaffirming its dovish position, the interest rate differential will continue to favor increasingly Canada, and higher interest rates in Canada will continue to favor Canadian dollar strength.”

Throughout the rest of the summer, the Loonie will likely remain rangebound. Most traders are on vacation and trading volume is low. Besides, risk appetite is currently weak. When the markets return to full swing in September, I expect the Loonie will experience in a surge in volatility. In fact, investors are already starting to adjust their positions, with the most recent Commitment of Traders report showing an increase in Net Longs, bringing the total to $4.2 Billion.

There is certainly a basis for predicting continued strength, but I think much depends on how commodity prices perform. As I pointed out above, the Loonie remains somewhat decoupled from commodities. That it nonetheless got a boost from strong wheat prices and the $40 Billion takeover bid for Potash Corp by mining giant BHP Biliton shows that investors still view Canada as a resource economy. If the global economy avoids a double-dip recession, commodities prices will probably recover and the Loonie will probably rise slowly towards parity. On the flip-side, the Loonie would be one of the big losers of a global slide back into recession.

Friday, August 27, 2010

“Risk-On, Risk-Off”

It sounds like a play on words, based on the Karate Kid refrain, Wax-On Wax Off, and for all I know it was. Still, I rather like this characterization – coined by a research team at HSBC – of the markets‘ current performance. Moreover, you’ll notice from the placement of that apostrophe that I’m not just talking about forex markets, but about the financial markets in general.
What we mean is that when risk appetite is high, credit markets and equities and high-yielding currencies tend to rally together. When risk appetite fades, “those assets fall and government bonds and safe-haven currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the Swiss franc and, in particular, the Japanese yen rally.” Data from Bloomberg News confirms this phenomenon: “The 120-day negative correlation between Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s Dollar Index and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was at 42.4 percent today, and has been mostly above 40 percent since June 2009.”
Skeptics counter that this correlation is tautological. Anyone can point to a stock market rally and declare that “Risk is Back On.” In addition, it’s not wholly unsurprising that there are strong correlations between low-risk currencies and low-risk assets, and between high-risk currencies and high-risk assets. According to HSBC, however, this time is different.

It sounds like a play on words, based on the Karate Kid refrain, Wax-On Wax Off, and for all I know it was. Still, I rather like this characterization – coined by a research team at HSBC – of the markets‘ current performance. Moreover, you’ll notice from the placement of that apostrophe that I’m not just talking about forex markets, but about the financial markets in general.

What we mean is that when risk appetite is high, credit markets and equities and high-yielding currencies tend to rally together. When risk appetite fades, “those assets fall and government bonds and safe-haven currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the Swiss franc and, in particular, the Japanese yen rally.” Data from Bloomberg News confirms this phenomenon: “The 120-day negative correlation between Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s Dollar Index and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was at 42.4 percent today, and has been mostly above 40 percent since June 2009.”
Skeptics counter that this correlation is tautological. Anyone can point to a stock market rally and declare that “Risk is Back On.” In addition, it’s not wholly unsurprising that there are strong correlations between low-risk currencies and low-risk assets, and between high-risk currencies and high-risk assets. According to HSBC, however, this time is different.

For example, models suggest that the recent decline in volatility should have caused these relationships to break down. That they defied predictions and remained strong suggests that we have witnessed a significant paradigm shift. In the past, “Rising correlations are also tied to weak macroeconomic conditions.” At the moment, this could hardly be more true, with global economic growth flagging.

Statisticians love to teach the dictum, Correlation does not imply causation. Nonetheless, I think that in this case, I’d wager to say that the equity and credit/bond markets are driving forex, rather than the other way around. Consider as evidence that, “[Retail] Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year,” and shifted this capital into bonds. While this wouldn’t in itself be enough to drive the Dollar higher, it epitomizes the steady shifts that have been taking place in capital markets for nearly a year, broken only by the S&P/Euro rally in the spring (which now appears to have been an aberration).
In fact, these shifts are once again creating shortages of Dollars: “This week, two banks bid at the European Central Bank’s weekly dollar liquidity providing auction – the first time there have been any bids since May – suggesting that they could not raise dollars in the market.” This suggests that demand for the Dollar could continue to grow.


Some analysts have suggested that the low-yielding US Dollar is already on its way to becoming a funding currency for carry traders, but I think this is wishful thinking. The HSBC report supports this conclusion, “A weakening of the ‘risk on-risk off’ paradigm is likely only once macro conditions are improved in a sustainable way…Currency performance will likely be tied to the ebb and flow of the perception of risk for some months to come.” In short, until there is solid proof that the global economy has emerged from recession (even if ironically it is the US which is leading the pack downward), the Dollar will probably remain strong.